Swine Flu – ’spread not sustained’ WHO

The sound of cautious ‘rowing back’ could be heard today coming from the WHO, which all last week was giving the most dire warnings of deaths in the millions resulting from the swine flu, now being known by the very catchy H1N1 Influenza A label, outbreak in Mexico. So why the subtle shift? On the surface it would appear that the virus is not spreading in the sustained manner expected by ‘experts’. That is except for North America. Could this have anything to do with the massive oceans between mainland North America and anywhere else with reported cases, I ask myself? Does the fact that outside of the 4 reported cases in New Zealand all the other cases have beeninthe Northern hemisphere and, according to some experts, were predicted to have a limited affect at this time of year BUT may result in further outbreaks inthe winter half of the year.

So what of the Southern hemisphere? So far the major population concentrations of Africa, India, and although it’s not in the Southern hemisphere, China have remained ‘officially’ unaffected. With South America and Australia showing only minimal effects so far it could appear that we may have escaped relatively lightly for the moment – eaving aside the 13 confirmed deaths and estimated over 600 cases reported so far. I’m no expert on pandemics but I have seen enough ‘official spin’ to be able to smell a rather large rat here. It seemed strange to me that on the same day this announcement came the official figure for confirmed cases doubled! It would be easy to jump to the conclusion that there’s a massive cover-up going on here but I think what’s far more likely is that experts and official bodies are uncertain about what is actually happening because the virus isn’t following the rules. Official bodies, whom we look to for advice and guidance and demand regular news briefings from, get nervous when things don’t go the way they expected but the last thing they can do is publically display or announce that uncertainty! So the result is the kind of bland, nuanced, qualified guesswork which has, in reality, been going on for some days now while the media demand for a consstent trajectory for the story simply add to the pressure. If there is such a thing as the ‘fog of pandemic’ then I think we are well and truly in it!

On Public Information (Swine Flu – UK)

Yesterday the British government launched it’s first ‘Swine flu information’ campaign under the somewhat awkward title of ‘CATCH IT, BIN IT, KILL IT’. The use of the word ‘catch’ in the campaign seems somewhat unfortunate but understandable when you see the accompanying image.  There’s nothing new in the advice being given – essentially, use a tissue,throw it in the bin, and wash your hands. I’ve no evidence to back this up but on past experience my guess would be that shops will quickly sell out of tissues, hand-wipes, anti-bacterial surface cleaner, disingectant,and anything that remotely looks like a cold or flu remedy – not to mention the inevitable shortages of food because people will feel insecure if they can’t guarentee a constant food supply; sort of like Christmas but without the fun and sense of occasion!

I’m sure the great British public won’t disappoint me as I head out this morning to do my REGULAR shopping – maybe because we’re supposed to be in the middle of a recession people won’t have the spare income to go and panic buy us into a worse crisis than we’re already in but I don’t hold out much hope of that. No, as usual it will be he most vulnerable in society, the elderly,the disabled, the very young, and the poor who will suffer most -if not from the swine-flu virus itself then from the thoughtless selfish greed of others. I hope I’m wrong but if this gets bad, despite all the government’s calm words and reassurance, we could see some pretty ugly scenes. So while I head off to beat the panic buyers,if you want to see the full advertising campaign, including the TV version, or if you’d like to read the Department of Health’s advice in full, as it’s updated, go here. For mre background see these pages which include a regularly updated ‘outbreak map’.

 (apologies to readers from outside the uk, your own government’s will no doubt be doing similar things – but do enjoy our information in the meantime )

Swine Flu – Coming Soon?

Last night the World Health Organization (WHO) said the chances of the Swine Flu outbreak in Mexico leading to a worldwide pandemic had significantly inreased – they have raised the threat level from 3 to 4. The significance of this is that the difference between a level 4 and level 5 threat, where a pandemic of some proportion becomes almost inevitable, is very small, said a leading expert on the BBC’s Newsnight lastnight.

The virus has already spread from Mexico to the USA, Canada, Spain and the UK, where the first official cases were confirmed yesterday. Several other countries, including Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and Israel, have also reported citizens with “flu-like symptoms”.In scenes more akin to a Hollywood disaster movie Mexico City seems to be the centre of the outbreak for now but the rapid spread of the virus to just about every corner of the globe is sure to mean it will go undetected somewhere and hence will form another ‘hot-spot’. One of the problems faced by those trying to fight the spread of the virus is that the origin of this strain is unknown and therefore WHO scientists are on their way to Mexico to investigate and work will begin on attempting to produce a vaccine as soon as enough virus can be brought to the labs, one of which is in the UK.

So tonight the world is holding it’s breath as we wait to see just how bad this will become and just who will be affected. Not suprisingly, share prices of drug companies have been rising all day – it seems that no matter what the human misery somebody somewhere will be making money; war, disease, and disaster are, as they say, ‘good for busimess’.

Find out more at:

BBC World News

The Guardian

New York Times

USA Today  great map of the virus’s spread!

Join the Conversation – 1. Walls

 

At last, after far too much delay, Fragmentary World (FW) is up and running! Anyone who’s read one of the ‘associated sites’, The Marginal, will know the sort of issues which tend to be raised on this group of blogs. The format here will be slightly more ‘instant response’ than considered reflection and, consequently, the posts should be a little shorter and less rounded. For more on the concept behind this blog see the ‘About’ section which should be completed shortly.

This year marks the 20th anniversary of the fall of the now infamous Berlin Wall and, with it, the eventual collapse of Soviet Communism. Here at FW we decided to begin a ‘conversation’ about the idea of ‘Wall’. What is a wall, why are we obsessed by them, is the wall merely an outward, physical expression of what happens within us, both individually and collectively? To join the conversation simply click on the link in the ‘Pages’ menu or use this to go straight to the page. If you feel you would like to make a ‘larger contribution’ to this subject, or you’ve already written something which you’d like us to publish, use the Contact FW tab and follow the instructions there. (Please go to the Conversations page for more details on the various ways you can contribute to FW) 

It would be especially good to hear from anyone who lived behind the Wall or anyone who lived, or still lives, in a formerly Communist country. We hope to run a more comprehensive look back at the e3vents of 1989 towards the end of the year so any contribution you can make will add to the depth and variety with which we can do this. It’s the belief of this blog that walls are sybols of the fragmentation of society and the world in general, of our inability to peacefully coexist as humans sharing the one, small planet, and of much more besides. We’d like to encourage as many as possible to get involved in this conversation so please take the opportunity, it will only take a few minutes but it start a deep change in the way we think about our fellow humans.